Photovoltaic panel waste: factors, risks and forecast of accumulation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32347/2411-4049.2026.1.29-44Keywords:
waste electrical and electronic equipment, recycling, management, photovoltaic moduleAbstract
The article is devoted to the analysis of the processes and prospects of photovoltaic panel waste generation in the context of the intensive development of solar energy. The aim of the study is to assess and forecast the generation of photovoltaic panel waste as a component of waste electrical and electronic equipment, and to identify the main problems and risks associated with the accumulation of this waste in the environment. The research methods include the analysis and systematization of information on assessing factors and forecasting photovoltaic panel waste generation based on different models.
The study of the panel waste growth under various scenarios, including to the overall electronic waste flow, has shown that the volume and share of such waste are increasing rapidly. In 2014, the share of photovoltaic panel waste in the total amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment was 0.1%; in 2022 – 1%. However, by 2030, the annual volume of panel waste is projected to reach 2.4 million tonnes, and by 2050 – 6.5 million tonnes, which corresponds to 3% and 6% of the projected total amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment. The main reasons for panel waste generation are the approved average lifespan of 25 years, premature degradation of the encapsulant, extreme weather conditions, early modernization of operating panels, etc.
The structural features of panels that influence their resource potential and recycling complexity are considered. The main barriers to effective waste management are identified: underdeveloped recycling infrastructure, complex panel structure, low profitability of valuable component extraction, and others.
The theoretical significance of the presented study is in the systematization of information on photovoltaic panel waste generation, including projections up to 2050 based on various models. According to the obtained results, the volume of waste will grow rapidly, and under conditions of low recycling rates, this will lead to the accumulation of such waste in the environment and, consequently, to contamination with toxic components from the waste. The practical significance of the obtained results is in substantiating the need to develop sustainable models for the use of panels and waste management to prevent significant risks in the future.
The value of the study is in the comprehensive comparison of photovoltaic panel waste growth forecasts, including in relation to the dynamics of the overall flow of electronic waste. Further research may be aimed at improving recycling systems and developing effective policies for photovoltaic panel waste management.
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