Impact of global climate change on the carbon balance of mountain-forest soils in the Lankaran-Astara region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32347/2411-4049.2026.1.7-19Keywords:
global climate change, carbon balance, CO₂ emissions, mountain-forest soils, Hyrcanian forestsAbstract
The study is dedicated to investigating the impact of global climate change on the carbon balance of mountain-forest soils in the Lankaran-Astara region. This unique ecosystem, part of the Hyrcanian forests, is included in the UNESCO World Heritage List. The research was conducted in 2023-2025 on the southeastern slopes of the Talysh Mountains, at altitudes ranging from 200 to 1800 meters. Total carbon, organic carbon, CO₂ emissions, and physico-chemical parameters were determined in soil samples, and RCP scenarios were used for climate projections. The results show that over the past 50 years, the average annual temperature has increased by 1.2°C, and precipitation has decreased by 8-10%. According to projections, by 2100, the temperature may increase by 2.5-4.5°C, and precipitation may decrease by 15-20%. The total carbon stock of soils ranges from 120 to 380 tC/ha. The highest values are observed in mountain-forest brown soils (320-380 tC/ha) and on northern slopes. CO₂ emissions range from 0.8 to 3.2 g C/m²/day, with the maximum recorded in the summer months. A high positive correlation (r=+0.72) exists between CO₂ emissions and soil temperature. Under the influence of climate change, CO₂ emissions are projected to increase by 25-45%, and soil organic carbon stocks are projected to decrease by 15-30% by 2100. These changes may pose a threat to the ecosystem sustainability of the Hyrcanian forests. The obtained results can serve as a scientific basis for developing climate change adaptation measures and forest management.
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