What could we have learnt from the previous flood data to predict losses caused by the 1980, 1986, and 1998 catastrophic floods in Ukrainian Transcarpathian?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32347/2411-4049.2022.3.81-109Ключові слова:
комбінований ситуаційно-індуктивний метод прогнозного моделювання, повені, збитки від повені, ризик збитків, максимальні скиди води, прогнозування, часові рядиАнотація
У цій статті досліджуються деякі аспекти, пов’язані з ретроспективним прогнозуванням підтверджених грошових втрат (збитків) від паводків, спричинених катастрофічними повенями 1980, 1986 та 1998 років у басейні річки Тиса в Закарпатській області України. Дослідження проводилося на основі двох часових рядів – збитків від минулих паводків та максимальних скидів, зафіксованих на гідрологічній станції поблизу села Вилок Виноградівського району. Основною метою дослідження було з'ясувати, чи була реальна можливість заздалегідь передбачити збитки від цих повеней.
При вирішенні поставленого завдання було виявлено та змодельовано залежність ризику втрат внаслідок паводків на Закарпатті від максимальних витрат води р. Тиса, заміряних на гідрологічній станції «Вилок». Прогнозування ґрунтувалося на гіпотезі стаціонарного випадкового процесу для максимальних витрат води, що дозволило використовувати емпіричну функцію розподілу випадкової величини щодо витрат води для оцінки ризику втрат від паводків.
Ретроспективне прогнозування втрат від повеней 1980, 1986, 1998 рр. здійснювалося за допомогою комбінованого ситуаційно-індуктивного методу прогнозного моделювання, який є оригінальною авторською розробкою. Метод стосується прогнозування поведінки складних динамічних систем на основі результатів моніторингу, представлених у вигляді часових рядів, дані яких відображають еволюцію результуючої (залежної) змінної та пояснюючої (незалежної) змінної (провісника). Метод використовує моделі екстраполяційно-регресійного типу. Згідно з цим методом завдання прогнозування виконується в два етапи. На першому етапі реалізується завдання ретроспективного ситуаційного моделювання з метою отримання набору простих регресій (ситуаційних моделей), побудованих за даними вибіркових часових рядів. Ситуаційні моделі визнаються адекватними або релевантними лише в межах певних проміжків часу, визначених як ситуації. На другому етапі на основі узагальнення (за деяким ансамблем) отриманих ретроспективних ситуаційних моделей будуються індуктивні моделі «рівнів», які відображають поведінку контрольованого параметра системи або процесу (результуючої змінної) при кількох фіксованих значеннях провісника в залежності від часу. Індуктивні моделі використовуються для екстраполяційного прогнозування ситуаційних моделей майбутніх періодів (ситуацій).
Всього було виконано три варіанти прогнозування: (1) з урахуванням даних щодо щорічних максимальних витрат води паводків з 1954 по 1979 рр. (до повені 1980 р.); (2) те саме з 1954 по 1985 рік (до повені 1986 року); (3) те саме з 1954 по 1997 рік (до повені 1998 року). Дослідження показало, що була реальна можливість передбачити підтверджені грошові втрати, завдані повенями 1986 та 1998 років (відносні похибки прогнозів 7,2-8,7% і 6,0-12,8% залежно від варіантів).
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