Study of the feature of the temperature regime of the Mykolaiv and region in the context of the issue of climate change

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most important and acute environmental problems of our time. It includes a complex of changes, such as rising ambient temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and more frequent extreme weather events. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average global temperature has risen by about 1.1°C since the late nineteenth century. Projections point to a possible increase of 1.5°C by the middle of this century unless significant measures are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. On the basis of the above, the paper analyzes trends in changes in atmospheric air temperature on the territory of risky agriculture in the South of Ukraine in the Mykolaiv region.
The purpose of the study: to determine and substantiate the regularities of changes in the temperature regime of Mykolaiv and Mykolaiv region in the context of climate change.
Research results. The values of temperature characteristics for the year and season in Mykolaiv and Mykolaiv region during 1991−2023 are analyzed. In Mykolaiv, about 60-67 days with a negative average daily air temperature and about 32 days with a negative maximum daily air temperature are recorded. The duration of the period with a negative minimum air temperature can be an average of 93 days per year: 64 in winter, 16 in spring and 14 in autumn. At the same time, on a large territory of the Mykolaiv region, autumn is warmer than spring. The average seasonal air temperature is 10.6°C, the average maximum temperature is 15.4°C, and the average minimum temperature is 6.4°C. In the Northern Black Sea region, both maximum and minimum temperatures in autumn are higher than in spring. The dynamics of changes in average annual temperatures in the city of Mykolaiv in the period from 1980 to 2023 are analyzed. A stable linear trend towards a gradual increase in average annual temperatures has been determined. The warmest year for this observation period is 2023, the coldest are 1985 and 1987. It is determined that the rate of increase in average temperature is 0.61°C for every ten years. Maximum temperatures are increasing at a rate of 0.0884°C per year and minimum temperatures are decreasing at a rate of 0.0136°C per year. Every year, the average annual temperature increases by approximately 0.021°С. The largest number of days accompanied by heat stress (up to 90%) is observed in July – August. Thus, changes in air temperature indicate a significant change in the temperature regime of the entire climate system of the region, and the consequences of climate change may be predominantly negative and will intensify in the future.