Expert assessment method of capabilities civil defense forces

Abstract

The article proposes an approach to expert assessment of the capabilities of civil defense forces in multicriteria tasks. To implement the approach, taking into account the specifics of the subject area, the possibility of a method of supporting expert decisions, which combines the use of ontologies, voting procedures of experts, and relevant calculation procedures. The general scheme of the environment for making expert decisions on assessing the capabilities of civil defense forces on the example of emergency rescue formation is given. It is shown that the main normative sources for decision-making on capacity assessment are the catalog of basic components of capabilities and the list of criteria for their assessment. The choice is made from three alternatives – ready for action as intended, limited ready, or not ready. The problem of capacity assessment was set, a variant of the scale of quantitative characteristics of capabilities, and the level of expert assessment was proposed. The correct choice of the voting procedure of experts is substantiated, which contributes to finding an agreed solution. It is determined that to ensure high-quality elaboration of the task hierarchy, control, and increase the objectivity of the formation of characteristic vectors, the subject area must be presented in the form of an ontological information model. Attributive descriptions (properties) of the criteria are presented in the ontological database in the form of frames, the slots of which contain the corresponding numerical or linguistic data. Appropriate computer web tools have been proposed to support remote access capability assessment technology.