ESTIMATION AND FORECAST OF CHANGES IN THE HYDROCHEMICAL STATUS OF THE TISZA RIVER

The engineer-ecological indexes and their parameters are used at the ecological estimation of the status of hydroecosystems (HE) of the Tisza water basin. The system-basin approach of research of the water basin bazed on the systematization and processing of environmental monitoring data for the long-term period was used. Such period allowed to set scientific conformities of the development of naturally-anthropogenic hydroecosystems in the conditions of constant technogenic load on them.


Introduction
On the modern stage of development of industry and national economy the problem of rational nature management becames extraordinarily actual. Foremost it is related to constantly growing anthropogenic influence of man on an environment. As known, the rivers are most sources of fresh waters for an economy and industry, at the same time, by points for the upcast of industrial wastes and effluents, that results not only in quality but also quantitative exhaustion. Therefore the decision of problem of maintenance and proceeding in the self-potential of water basins becomes especially actual and ecological.
The Tisza river is the most inflow of Danube, the area of water mirror of that presents 157 186 kilometres². Length of the Tisza river makes a 966 km. Basic part of Tisza flow is formed on territory four held: to Romania -51%, Ukraine -25,6%, Hungary -10%, Slovakia -13,4% [1,2].
Ukrainian part of the Tisza basin the belongs both to Overhead Tisza and Middle Tisza. The basin of the Tisza river is the basic source of water-supply of the Zakarpattia area. The total resources of superficial flow in a medieval year make 13300 million m 3 , in shallow is 7290 million m 3 . Except waters Tisza, 9 storage basins (a general capacity is 59,3 million m 3 ), 286 ponds (a general capacity is 10,056 million m 3 ) and 32 lakes among that most is, enter to them. Synevir by volume of 1,75 million m 3 [3].
The level of water consumption of area is insignificant. In 2016 all from natural sources 42,67 million m 3 of water is taken away, among them 43 surface-water and 57 underground. On territory to the area water-intensive productions that need the far of water are absent [4]. The prognosis resources of underwaters of drinkable quality make 399 million m 3 /year, and the level of ratified presents 124 million m 3 /year. By the state on 2016 used all only about 18,85 million m 3 /year, id est, an area has considerable potential for development of drinkable water-supply. Relative part of collection of waters Tisza presented on fig. 1. For period 1990-2016 tendency to considerable reduction of volumes to the water intake of water that takes place mainly due to reduction of the use on to trade and agricultural necessities was observed.

Main part
Prognosis of water consumption of waters Tisza is determined by the rates of economic and public development. According to calculations of scientists 2031 to amount of population in the district of water basin of the Tisza will increase more than in 5 times, as a result the increase of closeness of population will take place from 97,5 to 102,2 persons/of km 2 . The calculation water consumption of area can be fully provided due to local water resources, for what the conducted measures must be from maintenance and proceeding in present water resources. In obedience to calculations the structure of fence lead will have such kind - fig. 2. Others Contaminants come to the Tisza basin through the natural and anthropogenic sources of contamination. Basic sources of contamination of surface-water of river of Yew basin organic substances: communal sewer water; industry; agriculture [5].
In the picture 3 the diagram of distribution of volume of effluents between industries is presented.

Fig. 3 -A diagram of distribution of volume of effluents is between industries in 2016 year
For the last two decades, a political and economic situation caused changes in industrial activity that comes true in Zakarpattia. From data of the state statistical accounting about the use of waters, common amount of water users that carry out the upcast of effluents in the superficial water objects of the Tisza basin in 2016 made 106 subjects, in next sectors: industry is 35 subjects, including electroenergy -2; standard -1; chemical and petrochemical -1; machine-building and metal-working -4; woodworking -5; forest-chemical -1; building -5; light industry -1; food industry -15; agriculture -8; forestry -1; transport -3; building -1; trade -2; logistical support -3; housing and communal services -53 [6].
Contamination organic substances from the effluents of industry is insignificant. All in 2016 year by them it was downfaulted: organic substances -0.01 thousand tons (according to the Biochemical Oxygen Consumptionfull), 0.017 thousand tons (for Chemical consumption of oxygenCr).
The estimations of quality of water carried out from data of monitoring 2013-2016. The Primary purpose of research is an estimation ecological state of the Tisza river on physical and chemical indexes, exposure of basic sources of anthropogenic influence and determination of directions of improvement of the state of water object.
For calculations the base of statistical data of the ecological monitoring was created. All in a database contained information about more than a 200 water meters for hydrochemical descriptions.
Analyzing results on the whole, it should be noted that content of such substances as oil products, ions of copper and zinc, surface-active substances, nitrogen ammoniacal, nitrogen a nitrite, nitrogen is nitrate and a chrome general remains stable during the period of research.
A concentration of hydrogen is one of major indexes of quality of waters, that influences on the chemical equilibrium of ions in the system and matters very much for chemical and biological processes. Its amount in the Tisza river changes from 7,6 to 8,1 od. рН.
The amount of hydrocarbonates and chlorides in water presents 128-152 and 10-17 mg/dm 3 accordingly. Content of chlorides is considerably below from HDC (350 mg/dm 3 ) and testifies that salt contamination by this anion in water it is not. The amount of sulfates hesitates a from 23 to 30 mg/dm 3 , that considerably below from HDC (100 mg/dm 3 ). Reduction to the concentration of hydrocarbonates and sulfates is educed also on stream of the river.
Content of calcium and magnesium in river waters during the investigated period was within the limits of 36-41; 6,5-7,3 mg/dm 3 accordingly and does not exceed their HDC (180, 40 mg/dm 3 accordingly). In all tests of amount of calcium substantially prevail content of magnesium. There is a tendency to reduction of concentrations to the calcium down stream.
Data of prognoses are erected in a table 1. Reliability of prognosis is appraised on the basis of level of meaningfulness of р: than less level of meaningfulness, the greater reliability of prognosis. Consider a prognosis reliable enough, in what р ≤ 0,05. Obviously, that prognoses of content to the ammonium and iron is only an orientation, as them р > 0,05. All other the prognoses it follows to consider reliable enough.
Prognostication of content of pollutants gives an opportunity not only to envisage a concentration but also estimate the general tendency of seasonal change of substance. For the prognosis of the state of the Tisza water system by us those indexes that limit and most suitable for prognostication a statistical method was select: Chemical consumption of oxygen, nitrogen ammoniacal, phenols, phosphorus general, oil products, surface active substances, Biochemical Oxygen Consumption5. For select indexes there were the expected parameters but also b, what necessary for corresponding equalizations regressions. However, for prognostication of the state hydroecosystems can be used only those equalizations, at what copulas between signs very close (value of coefficient of correlation of r nearer to 1) and if calculation value of t exceeds a tabular value (it testifies to substantial connection between a concentration and sometimes a criterion).
After determination of force of connection between a concentration and sometimes, appeared, that for a prognosis it is possible to use very small part of data. Most suitable for prognostication a statistical method average annual data are for Chemical consumption of oxygen, Biochemical Oxygen Consumption5, phosphorus is general and to nitrogen ammoniacal.
The actual task of water control is introduction of extra cleaning of domestic effluents after a bioscrubbing. Hereupon contamination of waters will be warned and the state of water objects will become better, and also the recreational value of region will rise. According to figures 4-7 basic three indexes of Chemical consumption of oxygen, Biochemical Oxygen Consumption5 and concentration of general phosphorus has a tendency to the increase, and indexes of ammonium ionsto the reduction.

Conclusions
By the basic sources of receipt of ions in water objects there are stock-raising farms an ammonium, service-utility sewer water, superficial flow from farmlands at the Increase concentration of ammonium and phosphate ions used as an indicatory index of process of contamination of superficial and underground waters by domestic and agricultural flows.